Home/Blog/Poker Hand Probabilities: A Complete Mathematical Reference
Reference10 min read

Poker Hand Probabilities: A Complete Mathematical Reference

In a 52-card deck there are 2,598,960 distinct five-card hands. Every poker probability begins with this number. Here is the complete reference with odds, outs, and pot odds.

P
The Probability Lab Team
June 22, 2025

In a standard 52-card deck, there are 2,598,960distinct five-card hands. Every poker probability begins with this number. The relative rarity of each hand type follows directly from combinatorics — rarer hands beat more common hands because rarer hands are harder to make.

Five-card hand frequencies

HandCombinationsProbabilityOdds
Royal Flush40.000154%649,739 : 1
Straight Flush360.00139%72,192 : 1
Four of a Kind6240.0240%4,164 : 1
Full House3,7440.1441%693 : 1
Flush5,1080.1965%508 : 1
Straight10,2000.3925%254 : 1
Three of a Kind54,9122.1128%46 : 1
Two Pair123,5524.7539%20 : 1
One Pair1,098,24042.2569%1.37 : 1
High Card1,302,54050.1177%0.995 : 1

More than 50% of all random five-card deals are high-card hands. One pair covers another 42%. If you have a pair, you are already beating the majority of random five-card combinations.

Texas Hold'em starting hand probabilities

There are C(52, 2) = 1,326possible starting hands.

Starting Hand TypeCombinationsProbability
Any specific pair (e.g. AA)60.45%
Any pair785.88%
Ace-King suited40.30%
Ace-King offsuit120.90%
Any two suited cards31223.5%

Outs and the rule of 4 and 2

Rule of 4 and 2 (Approximation)
After the flop (two cards to come):
  Win probability ≈ (number of outs) × 4%

After the turn (one card to come):
  Win probability ≈ (number of outs) × 2%

Common out scenarios:
  Flush draw         → 9 outs → ~36% (flop), ~18% (turn)
  Open-ended straight→ 8 outs → ~32% (flop), ~16% (turn)
  Gutshot straight   → 4 outs → ~16% (flop),  ~8% (turn)
  Two overcards      → 6 outs → ~24% (flop), ~12% (turn)

Pot odds and calling decisions

Pot Odds Formula
Required win% = Call Amount / (Pot Size + Call Amount)

Example: Pot = $100, Opponent bets $50, you call $50 to win $200 total.
Required win% = 50 / (100 + 50 + 50) = 50/200 = 25%

Flush draw win% ≈ 36% > 25% required → CALL is profitable
Gutshot draw win% ≈ 16% < 25% required → FOLD is correct

Our Poker Evaluator calculates this for you: enter your pot size and call amount after running a simulation, and the tool tells you whether a call is profitable given your current win percentage.